Cappers Buzz

Toledo came through for us on these pages last week, and we’ll come right back with them in this spot. They were kind of fortunate to beat Iowa St as they were down 11 with just 5 minutes left to play in the 4^th quarter before rallying for the win. Toledo ran a kickoff back 82 yards for a touchdown and then recovered a botched punt in the end zone for the game-winning score. And such a win can instill some confidence in a team that has really struggled early on. It was their first win of the year after getting steamrolled for 3 consecutive weeks, and they should make it back-to-back wins here against a putrid Western Michigan team.

Not that Toledo is a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but they are very tough to beat on their home field. Since head coach Tom Amstutz took over in 2001, the Rockets have gone 31-5 straight-up at home. A night game in the Glass Bowl is one place opposing teams do not like to play, as Western Michigan has found out first hand. They’ve lost the last 2 trips here by a combined 90-40. And that should continue because Western’s defense has been a sieve this year. They allow over 200 yards on the ground and through the air, and Toledo’s offense will be able to put-up points all night long. To be noted, Toledo’s defense also stinks as they also allow over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. So neither team will have any trouble scoring, but a back and forth game favors the home team. And Toledo has been a home team that relishes the home dog role going 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in that role. That lone loss came in the opener against Purdue. Just like last week when Iowa St was favored at Toledo, Western simply has no business being a road favorite in this game. Play Toledo plus the points.

Edit: When I wrote this game-up earlier in the week, Toledo was the dog. However, the line has flipped and they are now a 1 ½-point favorite. Never wise to play into such a line move, so I’d suggest passing this game now.

There’s some good information for you above, but it’s nothing like what I’ve got for you at CappersGallery.  Go there and grab my strongest play for Saturday that’s backed by a 88% winning spread pattern.  You went a perfect 3-0 last week with me at the Gallery, so don’t miss out on another winning weekend.  Go get it, and let’s win big together.