New York Yankees (51-33) vs Cleveland Indians (45-39)

Wednesday July 6 – 7:05PM (ESPN)

Pitching Probables:   Phil Hughes vs Justin Masterson

Spread: Cleveland -1.5
Money Line: New York -110,  Cleveland -110
Over Under: 9u -120

I feel like I haven’t written about the New York Yankees in a while so I have to start by saying this team is pretty amazing.  They wouldn’t be by pick for the World Series but they are clearly near the top of the game – despite many setbacks, poor performances and injuries, including the performance of tonight’s starter Phil Hughes who has only just recently been brought back to the Majors after experiencing a “dead arm” situation.   This is Hughes’ first action since April and they wouldn’t have brought him up if they didn’t think he was ready bu the the objective side within me is saying “he is pitching on the road and against a first place club” so I am not giving him much a of a chance this first time out, however, the Yankees lineup, even with a struggling Derek Jeter is fearsome and could easily score enough runs to win for Hughes.  That is how he amassed 18 victories last season.

Kudos to the Cleveland Indians as well for their performance in 2011.  After a dismal recent stretch they have resumed playing good baseball, regaining the top spot in the AL Central.  One of the reasons for their staying power this season is the consistent pitching they have been getting from their starter, especially tonight’s starter Justin Masterson, who in my opinion is their ace.  Masterson is on a great run of 5 starts where he has not given up more than 2ER.  Unfortunately he has only a couple of victories to show for it as the Indians seem to struggle with the stick when he is on the hill (twice they were shutout).  Another interesting thing about Masterson is that he is not phased  when facing the Yankees.  Including his Boston days he has a solid 3.80 ERA against the Bronx Bombers.  One of the big reasons he has fared so well is that he has never given up a homer to an opponent in “pinstripes”.

The odds makers have the Cleveland Indians as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.

Prediction: Hughes will need a lot of support to win this one but I don’t think he will get it.  Indians win with Masterson being very solid again.

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Score Prediction: Cleveland – 7, New York  – 4

New York Yankees Betting Trends:

• NY Yankees are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Yankees’s last 15 games on the road
• NY Yankees are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games on the road

Cleveland Indians Betting Trends:

• Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 10 games at home
• Cleveland is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland’s last 13 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

Cincinnati Reds (43-43) vs St. Louis Cardinals (46-40)
Tuesday July 5 – 7:05PM – ESPN

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5
Money Line: Cincinnati +137, St. Louis -157
Over Under: 8o -115

Pitching Probables:   Edinson Volquez vs Jaime Garcia

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The Reds have been teasing us all season long.  On paper they look like they might be better than a .500 team but the results have yet to show it.  With only a week to go before the All Star break they have a chance to make up some ground against the St. Louis Cardinals, a team they have beaten 4 out of 7 times this season (but not last night).  Starting pitcher Edinson Volquez was solid but not spectacular last time out and the same can be said for his last go at the Cardinals – a 3-0 loss back in April.  Historically he hasn’t fared well against this particular division foe as the Reds have won only 2 of his 6 starts against St. Louis.  Last night the bats were silenced against a very sharp Chris Carpenter, however, this team is a daily threat – 4th in the league in runs scored at 4.71.

Look out National League, Chris Carpenter may be on his way back.  The tall righthander was very impressive last night in shutting out the Reds for 8 innings.  The Cards will look to extend their lead in the NL Central behind Jaime Garcia, an early season star, who has cooled some lately.  Even though the last month has seen some poor performances by Garcia you have to like the fact that the Cards are a perfect 4-0 when he deals against the Reds (all last year).  St. Louis is also one of the better hitting teams in the Majors (5th in runs) so there is a chance that this one could bust open, especially after last night’s total of one run being scored.  These teams are 4-3 to the over when hooking up this season.

The odds makers have the St. Louis Cardinals as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.

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Prediction:  St. Louis continues winning ways in a more run filled affair.

Score Prediction: St. Louis – 6, Cincinnati – 4

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing St. Louis
• Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis’s last 8 games
• St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

Philadelphia Phillies (46-28) vs St. Louis Cardinals (40-34)
Wednesday June 22 – 8:15PM (ESPN)

Pitching Probables: Cliff Lee vs Kyle Lohse

Spread: Philadelphia -1.5
Money Line: Philadelphia -155, St. Louis +135
Over/Under: 7.5 -130

This is the lone non-interleague series right now and it pits two of the top teams in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies have been playing very well, winning 8 of their last 10, including a 10-2 pounding of the Cardinals to open the series last night. It was a close game until the Phillies jumped all over the Cardinals bullpen scoring 9 runs in the last two innings. After struggling early in the season starter Cliff Lee seems to have found his comfort zone of late. In his last 3 starts spanning 24 innings he has given up only 1 run and 13 hits. It is no coincidence that the Phillies seem to be hitting their stride over the same period, looking to distance themselves in the competitive National League East. It is hard not to like them tonight on the road at STL.

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The St. Louis Cardinals must be heartbroken about the loss of Albert Pujols. He was finally starting to get right and then this happens – and some think the 4 week recovery time is a joke. After their pen was lambasted last night they are hoping that surprising starter Kyle Lohse can continue to baffle hitters this evening. The real question is whether he is another Dave Duncan miracle or just a mirage (4 ERS in his last 3 starts indicates the latter). St. Louis is still a good team but this is a critical game for them. Pujols is gone, the pen just exploded and their most dependable starter of 2011 is on the hill. If they lose this one they could fall into a “Marlins-ian decline”. With Cliff Lee dealing for their opponent a victory isn’t very probable.

Prediction: Cliff Lee continues string of fantastic outings and Kyle Lohse continues string of poor ones. It means a relatively easy victory for Philadelphia.

Score Prediction: Philadelphia – 6, St. Louis – 1

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games
• Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
• Philadelphia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis’s last 7 games
• St. Louis is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
• St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 games at home

Pitching Probables: Ivan Nova vs Johnny Cueto

Spread: Cincinnati Reds -1.5
Money Line: Cincinnati Reds -125 / New York Yankees +105
Over/Under: 9

While the injuries are mounting for the aging Yankees this team has recovered after Boston handed it to them.   They have won eight of their last ten games, including two at venerable Wrigley Field over the weekend.  The next stop on their tour of the NL Central is Cincinnati a burgeoning albeit enigmatic club.  Tonight’s Yankee starter Ivan Nova is slowly becoming a dependable option for manager Joe Girardi.  He hasn’t given up more than 4 runs in a start in over a month and will be facing the Reds for the first time so their could be an advantage. Either way this slugging club is likely to enjoy playing a series in the bandbox that is the Great American Ball Park (They are 1st in HRs and OPS in the majors).

The Cincinnati Reds were humbled by the Toronto Blue Jays for two games but managed to pull out a victory on the finale on Sunday in am unexpected pitcher’s duel. That is not their preferred method of victory but if they need to do it again they have their best option on the hill tonight in starter Johnny Cueto, who has been the Reds best pitcher since joining the team off the disabled list.  Cueto has not given up more than 3 runs in any of his starts this season.  He still walks a few too many guys but is finally beginning to harness the great stuff he possesses.  It would be helpful if his teammates would back him up a little more effectively though.  When he takes the hill is is getting just a hair over 4 runs of support even though the Reds average closer to 5 per game.  It seems like they are depending on him to be extra sharp and thus far he has not let them down.  Keeping the Yankees off the board will be a big test.

The odds makers have the Cincinnati Reds as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.

Prediction:  Cueto stifles the Yanks enough for the Reds bats to come through late in an important inter-league victory.  Good value on the home team given the opponent.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati – 5, New York – 4

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New York Yankees Betting Trends:

• NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games on the road
• NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing NY Yankees

No 19 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 20 Georgetown Hoyas NCAAB Lines

Date/Time: Monday, January 31, 7 PM ET
Venue: Verizon Center, Washington, DC
Broadcast: ESPN

Money Line: Louisville (+180) Georgetown (-220)
Spread: Georgetown -5
Over/Under: 143

Louisville Cardinals vs. Georgetown Hoyas Preview

Tonight in a Big East match up between a couple of ranked teams the 19^th ranked Louisville Cardinals (17-4) host the 20^th ranked Georgetown Hoyas (16-5). NCAA lines have the Hoyas as 5-point favorites in this game with a total of 143.

In their last games both teams played on Saturday, as Georgetown beat Villanova 69-66 and Louisville beat Connecticut 79-78 in 2 OT.

After a slow start in Big East play Georgetown has found their grove and they have won 4 straight conference games. Louisville is in 2^nd place in the conference at 6-2 while Georgetown is tied for 5^th at 5-4.

This season both teams have been pretty decent bets with Georgetown at 13-7 ATS and Louisville at 10-7-1 ATS. In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the home team is 4-1-1 ATS.

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Georgetown is not a good team on the boards ranking 228^th in the nation in rebounds per game, but luckily they will not be facing 6”10” Gorgui Dieng (4.5 rpg), who is out with an injury. However, they still have to worry about Terrence Jennings (5.2 rpg) and Rakeem Buckles (7.5 rpg). The Hoyas have to man up and especially keep these guys off the offensive glass.

The Hoyas rank 2^nd in the nation in FG% and they are led by leading scorer Austin Freeman (18.8 ppg), who is averaging 24.3 ppg in the Hoyas 4-game winning streak and he dropped 29 on the Cardinals last season. Georgetown is led by their backcourt and since they do not feature a lot of inside scoring their guards have to score tonight and knock down their jumpers.

The Cardinals are also led by their backcourt with the guard duo of Preston Knowles (15.1 ppg) and Peyton Siva (11.1 ppg).

For Louisville to pull off the upset tonight they will have to play well on the boards and now allow the Hoyas to shoot a high FG%.

Both teams have a solid backcourt, but the Hoyas have 3 guys that can light it up and that will be the key. Georgetown will play well at home and not allow the Cardinals to kill them on the glass. The Hoyas will win this game and cover the 5-point spread.

Betting Trends

Georgetown is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home and Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%.

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Pick: Georgetown -5

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• Before NBA Season starts

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Oddsmakers at BetUS.com posted the following odds on the Heisman Award:

Heisman winner odds
Cameron Newton:  1/5
LaMichael James: 3/1

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